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Internal research projects - year 2013

Project No.: 1282

Project title:

Evaluation of the current prediction method for agricultural commodities (Abrahamová)

Head of project:

Ing. Miluše Abrahamová

Staff:

Members of the department no. 1220

Objective:

Decide on the applicability, modifications, and a possible extension (or an upgrade) of the current prognostic method, based on the evaluation of the results of predictions.

Partial objective:

  1. An evaluation of the results of the standard method for short-term predictions of farming prices and the subsequent producers‘ and consumers‘ prices of agricultural commodities. The research will be focused primarily on quickly applicable methods which can be easily interpreted and on the creation of a standard for a continuous evaluation.
  2. An applicable analysis of the usability of models of price transmission created in the framework of the Thematic Research Assignment no. 43(4220)/2010. The research is focused on the evaluation in a longer time horizon and mainly on the ways of recalculation of the parameters of the model.

Individual prediction methods and the frequency of their usage – the research will be focused on the frequencies of usage in confrontation with the application of standard methods. It is assumed that the methods for evaluation are individualized with respect to the specificity of the methods for prediction.

Methodology, assumptions, sources:

To evaluate the predictions up to now the following methods will be used:

  1. Intuitive expertize
  2. Quantitative evaluation
  3. Evaluation of the applicability of the prediction method used
  4. A prediction as a means of evaluation of the stability of the economic subsystem under consideration
  5. Evaluation of the time of realizing of the predictions

Outputs and their use:

  • Article in a reviewed journal
  • Presentation at a seminar
  • Application for the outcomes of the IAEI focused primarily on the trends in the evolution of prices of agricultural commodities in the domestic market and through the whole vertical of distribution of products (farming prices, producer prices, and consumer prices).

Informative also for specialists in the agricultural sector, who are often using the predictions of IAEI.

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